Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. This week’s newsletter is shorter than most; enjoy it while it lasts. You can subscribe here. The Senate is in; it’s a committee work week for the House.
THE TOP LINE
Follow the money. House Appropriators released text for the four remaining appropriations bills: T-HUD; CJS; Energy & Water; and Labor-HHS. I have a twitter thread dissecting where the money (and increases) go; if enacted, 55% of all discretionary spending would go to Defense+MilCon-VA. Of the $120 Billion in increased funding levels, 46% would go to Labor-HHS, 18% to Defense+MilCon-VA, and the remaining nine committees receive the dregs. Subcommittee and full committee mark-ups are scheduled to wrap up this week, and floor votes presumably will follow prior to the August recess— assuming there is a recess. Look at the report language, which is generally released 24-hours before the full committee markup, because that language could survive intact even as the bill text changes as Senate appropriators work their way to 60 votes.
In the Senate, Appropriations Chairman Leahy plans ($) to start markups the last week of July or the first week of August. There is no news about negotiations on top line numbers. Few people expect approps bills to become law before the end of the fiscal year on September 30th — more like the end of the calendar year if enough Senate Republicans are willing to deal.
The days (and nights) will be long. Meanwhile, policymakers suspended the debt limit for two years — until this August 1st — and once it is reinstated the US Treasury will hit the debt limit sometime soonish. The congressional negotiation process to suspend or increase the limit most closely resembles a game of catch with a troop of enraged monkeys that toss live grenades. Not only is it a bad idea, but there’s no reason to play that game to begin with.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Capitol Police will run out of funding in August and need an infusion of funding or it will be forced to furlough employees. The House passed a supplemental spending bill, which didn’t contain much detail and was dismissed by Senate Democrats and Republicans. Senator Leahy has been urging Republicans to negotiate for more than a month. On Friday Senate Republicans finally made a counter-offer, obtained by Politico, which is 1/3 of the funding level House Democrats had proposed. Well, well, well. Here’s what we think should be included in the bill.
The Bulk Data Task Force, a working group of stakeholders inside and outside Congress focused on improving legislative information, will hold its next meeting this Wednesday, July 14th, from 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM. The public, congressional staff from both chambers, support + agency staff, and everyone else is invited to attend and participate. However, you must register to get the email with the link to attend the virtual meeting. RSVP here.
July 21st Webinar on freedom of the press. Next Wednesday, July 21st, our team is hosting a panel discussion focused on the status of the free press in the U.S., concentrating on surveillance of journalists and their sources. Panelists include Jennifer Henrichsen of Yale Law School’s Information Society Project, Kathy Kiely of Missouri University, and Michael De Dora of the Committee to Protect Journalists. It will be moderated by Sean Vitka, Senior Policy Counsel for Demand Progress. RSVP here. (Note the change in date).
Continue reading “Forecast for July 12, 2021”