Where Congress Learns About Congress
The First Branch Forecast newsletter has moved to Substack. It’s all the same information that you’ve grown to rely upon.
We made the move to increase the reach of the newsletter, make it easier to disseminate, and make it easier to raise funds. You can see the most recent blogposts below.
Good morning, everyone. The House and Senate remain out of session until November 12th, although with the impending election results you can almost hear the scurrying in the corridors of power. The House press gallery maintains a list of non-returning members and we hope to soon know everyone who is successful in returning to Congress and those defeated in their reelection efforts.
Is it worth coming back? The AP asked that question of a handful of candidates.
We have a lot to look forward to post-election: new member orientation, votes on leadership and party rules, and a lame duck session where a lot of deferred work must get done. There is also a big ideological shift coming, with new Republican leadership in the Senate, potential new Republican leadership in the House, and the continuation of the ideological trend moving the center of the Republican party from mainline Republicans to MAGA Republicans.
Should Democrats retake control of the House, it will be interesting to see how a new triumvirate chooses to exercise and share power.
Since we are slowly easing towards Thanksgiving, I want to remind everyone that this little newsletter takes a lot of effort. We don’t currently have support from philanthropic foundations for this work, so any financial support you could throw our way would mean a lot.
Continue reading “FBF: Gearing up for post-election: Off to the leadership races, prepping for new members, looking back at FOIA, looking ahead to the 119th 11/4/2024”Enter, dear reader, where shadows now creep,
Where Congress in silence its secrets does keep.
This week’s eerie tales lie hidden in code,
Where AI and power share a winding road.
The House Committee stirs with a plan,
In whispers and meetings where schemes began
New rules are forged in the tech-driven night,
While fragile links vanish with power’s slight.
And what’s this rumble in Washington’s walls?
Rumors of shifts as October’s chill falls.
The GOP’s halls echo with dread,
Where the Speaker’s rules rise from the dead.
Some say “Czar Cannon” lingers around,
A ghostly guide to the battleground.
So grasp a goblet of pumpkin-spiced lore,
For data, debate, and mysteries galore.
In the heart of democracy’s hallowed maze,
You’ll find tales to chill and intrigue to amaze.
This week’s edition dives into some key happenings in Congress and beyond. First up is the Senate Republican leadership elections, where there’s a power struggle as factions try to control the timing of the vote to control its outcomes. In the House, Republicans are also gearing up for leadership elections, while House Democrats have uncontested top spots. Jared Golden is trying to bring back the Blue Dogs coalition in the House, which could be a savvy move if he can keep the group united to take advantage of a divided political landscape.
On the tech and transparency front, the Supreme Court of Mexico is using AI to help the public understand court decisions, which is interesting because an authoritative source is using technology to provide summaries of key information. We also celebrate GovTrack’s 20th anniversary, a key tool for tracking Congress, and cover the ongoing digitization of the U.S. Congressional Serial Set to improve access to committee records. Other highlights include concerns about Congress’s security amid potential threats and a look at how using a different lens for budget scoring can change the outcomes for debate over various policies, such as immigration.
Continue reading “FBF: Leadership Fights, AI Insights, and GovTrack’s Big Milestone 10-21-2024”Good morning, everyone.
I recently had the opportunity to attend LegisTech: Artificial Intelligence in Parliaments, a conference hosted by Bússola Tech and the Organization of American States here in Washington, D.C. The event, which brought together experts from around the world, was a fascinating look at the cutting edge of the intersection of AI and parliaments. A few newly released publications caught my eye, including a list of 60 AI use cases actively under consideration by parliaments around the world.
I’ve also been keeping up with the Hansard Society’s take on the British parliament’s current agenda. It’s intriguing to see the similarities and differences compared to our Congress. They’re wrestling with some of the same issues—like managing member conduct, addressing seniority, and reviewing ethical guidelines.
On a different note, the potential election of Sarah McBride, set to become the first openly transgender member of Congress, raises important questions about how the House will handle the expected hostile welcome and commensurate security risks arising from how she is greeted by some quarters of the chamber.
For those who love procedural deep dives, Senate reform is on the table once again. There’s buzz about changing Senate Republican Conference rules and some discussion of changes to the Senate seniority system and concerns arising from how seniority operates in the House. I also took a quick detour on the effects of tv cameras in the Senate.
Rounding things out are a discussion of how the Congress keeps track of past-due agency reports and the Washington Post‘s look at reimbursing members for work-related expenses.
Continue reading “FBF: AI, Senate Reform, and Big Challenges for Congress (10/14/2024)”This week we’re covering everything from AI innovations to shifts in congressional power.
AI tools like NotebookLLM are making it easy to turn lengthy reports into podcasts, streamlining how we consume complex information. We illustrate some ways it could change the Congressional information environment.
There’s a lot happening in Congress post-Chevron, and we cover how the Legislative branch can regain its footing after the SCOTUS decision, especially as we have hit a point of cultural inflection on Capitol Hill.
We also explore new oversight tools, such as OpenOMB, which sheds light on how federal agencies spend taxpayer dollars. Plus, some notable retirements from government, and there’s progress on efforts to modernize Congress.
Continue reading “FBF: AI for EZ learning & building a post-Chevron Congress (10/7/2024)”I feel a little like Robert Caro this week except his prose sparkled and he had a much better editor. This week we cover a bit of everything.
We look at efforts to weaken the discharge petition and let Member Moms vote. We dip our toes into continuity of Congress and reveal that the member back-pay lawsuit can go forward.
We go document diving and read what the Library of Congress had to say about what it’s doing on Congress’s behalf, and spend a fair amount of time quibbling over public access to historical CRS reports.
And we cover a legislative good idea – tracking nomination – and another that’s almost at the finish line – a journalist shield law.
This was way too much writing, but with six weeks off, you need something fun to read. As always, send me a note to let me know what you think.
Continue reading “FBF: You’d think it’d be quiet (9/30/2024)”This past week was insanely busy, which is not surprising considering it’s the penultimate week before Congress goes on recess for the election, not returning until November 12th.
Inside we cover everything from some great suggestions for updating the rules of the House of Representatives, a public conversion on Congress.gov, the Congressional Hackathon 6.0, the overprioritization of constituent communications by some offices, congressional unions, an odd lobbying loophole, and what happens when you read too many government documents.
There’s also an interesting article on the lack of philanthropic support for investing in democracy reform. Boy, is that true – especially for what happens in between elections. That is also an opportunity for me to shamelessly ask you to support this little newsletter, which is a lot of work.
Notable bills on the floor this week include: the CBO Data Access Act (S. 1549), the NAPA Reauthorization Act (S. 133), the GAO Database Modernization Act of 2024 (S.679), and, of course, a continuing resolution.
Continue reading “FBF: The last week before splitsville (9/23/2024)”This week contains the International Day of Democracy (generally not celebrated in the US), Constitution Day, a House Rules Committee hearing on the chamber rules for the 119th Congress, the Congress.gov forum and Congressional Hackathon, and so much more. Keep cool and keep caffeinated.
If you want to brush up on your personal cybersecurity at an event tailored for staff, RSVP to this virtual training next Monday hosted by the American Governance Institute, the R Street Institute, and Demand Progress Education Fund.
Continue reading “FBF: Christmas in September (9/16/2024)”Here we are again. Over the next few weeks Congress will be at a performative peak, working hard to draw contrasts between the parties, distinctions among the factions, and assail the opposing party’s marquee candidates in any way possible. This is in stark contrast from what we can expect in December, when members are the farthest they can possibly be from an election and all the pent-up legislative energy will be channeled into a few must-pass bills.
In the background are the tectonic shifts of our political system transforming into a new configuration and a series of slips and jolts as political actors seeks to take advantage of and construct new terrain.
Continue reading “FBF: It’s Showtime (9/9/24)”