First Branch Forecast for February 14, 2022

Welcome‌ ‌to‌ ‌the‌ ‌First‌ ‌Branch‌ ‌Forecast,‌ ‌your‌ ‌regular‌ ‌look‌ ‌into‌ ‌the‌ ‌Legislative‌ ‌branch‌ ‌and‌ government ‌transparency.‌ ‌Tell ‌your‌ ‌friends‌ ‌to‌ subscribe.

TOP LINE

Schedule. The Senate is in this week; the House has a committee workweek. Both are on recess next week. The committee calendar is light, but I’ll be busy. On Thursday the House Admin Committee will be holding a hearing on oversight of the January 6th Capitol Attack — the Capitol Police IG will be testifying, as will I. On Wednesday, the House Modernization Committee will hold a hearing on modernizing district offices.

FY 2022 Approps. A bipartisan, bicameral topline and framework have been reached for the omnibus spending bill and nothing beyond that fact is publicly known (except that we will, alas, see a huge increase on the defense side.) In an odd but hilarious twist of fate, one recent report suggests that earmarks may be making a budget deal harder to reach for some Senate Republicans — on that, we will see. The House-passed stopgap spending package, intended to fund the government through March 11, awaits a Senate vote. The CPCC’s latest explainer, uh, explains why a year-long continuing resolution is a bad idea. We will be closely watching to see the top line numbers for the Legislative branch, which will determine whether grossly underpaid congressional staff get some financial relief.

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast for February 7, 2022: Legitimate political discourse

TOP LINE

This week. The House is scheduled to be in from Monday to Wednesday, with a light legislative calendar that might get heavier to address the FY 2022 appropriations bill and unionization in the House. After Wednesday, the House is currently scheduled to be out until March 1, with a committee-only work week next week. The Senate is in on Monday, with a week-long recess scheduled for next week, which also is fraught considering the expiration of the CR on the 18th. We didn’t see anything of relevance on the committee calendar.

Remember last week when we wrote about continuity of Congress and the problems that could arise in both chambers, but most acutely in the Senate? Unfortunately Sen. Luján had a stroke last week and reportedly will be out for a while, which not only is a personal tragedy but has serious implications for the ability of the majority to act on the committees in which he serves and to advance measures on the floor.

Union! Prompted by a question from journalist Pablo Manríquez, Speaker Pelosi’s office indicated she’d support allowing House staff to unionize; Senator Schumer indicated the same. As of 1pm on Sunday, we have identified 72 members of the House and 11 members of the Senate who support allowing congressional staff to unionize. We wrote a brief history of unionizing efforts in Congress and I submitted testimony on this topic last year.

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast for January 31, 2022: Proxy Voting FTW

This week. The Senate is back today; the House is back tomorrow. Appropriations run out on February 18th, so expect a short CR, an omnibus bill, or a shutdown. Looking at scheduled committee proceedings, we see separate Tuesday HSGAC and Budget hearings on the nominations of the OMB Director and Deputy Director. Sunday was Fred Korematsu day in many states; read about him here.

Working conditions in Congress were the focus of three significant reports in the last week. We previously mentioned the House IG report, which recommends the “House establish and maintain pay parity with Executive branch salaries and make the necessary adjustments to the MRA to achieve pay parity” and has four specific implementation recommendations. The Congressional Progressive Staff Caucus released the results of its survey of 516 congressional staff (summary + data) that found that half of staff surveyed struggled to make ends meet and two-thirds are unhappy with their compensation level — the findings are summarized by Roll Call’s Megan Mineiro. And Issue One released an analysis of House expenditure data that found 1 in 8 staff are not making a living wage; Roll Call’s Niels Lesniewski has a summary. All this points to what we already know: staff are overworked and underpaid and the House must make some changes, including implementing the House IG report recommendations and making sure members of Congress are incentivized to help their staff (such as by allowing them to unionize).

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast for January 24, 2022: More Staff, Better Tech

THIS WEEK

This week. The Senate returns to its regularly scheduled programming (recess) after a busy week and won’t return until Jan. 31; the House is out until Feb. 1. Committee activity is minimal. The February 18th deadline to fund the government looms; Senate Republicans continue to stonewall. Last week, we watched as the Senate upheld its sacred tradition of refusing to protect the right to vote for all citizens through parliamentary maneuvers designed to accomplish the opposite of their stated objectives. Sarah Binder explains what Senate Democrats were trying to accomplish and how a tactical defeat could become a strategic victory for democracy. We fear that it is too late.

In the following sections we talk about additional threats to self-government as well as progress in reforming aspects of House operations. Of particular note is an overlooked but striking report on increasing the number of employees per member office, an excellent Fix Congress Committee hearing on implementation of its reform recommendations, and the announcement (via that hearing) of the standing up of the CAO’s House Digital Service.

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast for January 10, 2022: Gloom and doom?

THE TOP LINE

This week. The House is back Monday evening with a quorum call to start the second session of the 117th Congress; the Senate is back on Monday as well. The floor and committees look fairly quiet, but watch out for Tuesday’s Leg Branch Approps hearing with 3/4s of the Capitol Police Board and a Senate Judiciary hearing on domestic terrorism; a Wednesday House Defense Approps subcommitte hearing on the negative consequences of the CR on defense readiness and a SSCI hearing on a DHS intel nominee. Senator Reid will lie in state on Wednesday — the Nevada Independent summarized his life and linked to video from this weekend’s services.

Trump insurrection. Last week was the one year anniversary of the Trump insurrection. Many of those criminally responsible are at large and uncharged; those who are politically responsible continue to downplay, deny, or shift responsibility — or counterprogram with misinformation. We will not pass over those who remain silent with the purpose of evading responsibility and encouraging the media to move its attention elsewhere. You can tell a lot by those who skipped out on the commemoration. The denial and downplaying of these terrible events have particular relevance for those on the hill. If you are a staffer and have not yet done so, please respond to the Congressional Progressive Staff Association’s survey on your attitudes toward the congressional workplace one year after January 6th.

Continue reading →

Make U.S. Capitol Police IG Reports Publicly Available Online

Federal inspectors general routinely publish their findings online. This helps hold federal agencies to account by creating public and internal pressure to address the concerns raised by the IG and creating a record should they fail to fix problems. However, the Capitol Police Inspector General is one of a handful of IGs that withholds their reports from the public. On Monday, Demand Progress wrote to the committees that oversee the Capitol Police to request they direct the Capitol Police Inspector General to publish its final reports online.

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast for January 3, 2022: Trump Insurrection Redux

January’s 6th’s anniversary is this Thursday and so far no one of significance has been held accountable for the Trump insurrection, Republicans blocked a 9/11 style commission, the Select Committee will turn into a pumpkin at the end of the year (as will any contempt prosecutions, should we get that far), and the media still is talking about “partisan divides.” Trump will counterprogram the commemoration, likely to repeat the big lies that deny his election loss, assert the sacking of the Capitol was a peaceful protest led by good people, and falsely claim election fraud (as a basis to rig the elections going forward) — all of which we can expect to see winked at by congressional leadership and amplified by the press. The far right will use the attention to portray themselves as the victims — they (ironically) like comparing themselves to Jewish victims of the Holocaust — and will use their “victimhood” as a basis for further violent actions. Regarding the select committee, intended as an accountability mechanism: “Our legacy piece and final product will be the select committee’s report,” with an interim report expected this summer. That’ll show ‘em. Can we at least stop calling it “January 6th” and use a more accurate descriptor, like the “Trump insurrection?” We appear to be at the end game for efforts to arrest our democratic decline — a draw is tantamount to a loss.

Continue reading →

All Non-Confidential CRS Reports Should be Available Online

The public does not have access to a comprehensive database of non-confidential Congressional Research Service (CRS) reports. Recently, Demand Progress, American Enterprise Institute, and Free Government Information, and a coalition of 39 other organizations and 21 experts on Congress, including many CRS analysts, wrote to Representative Zoe Lofgren and Senator Amy Klobuchar, the Chair and Vice Chair of the Joint Committee on the Library, requesting they direct the Library of Congress to publish all non-confidential CRS reports online.

Continue reading →

First Branch Forecast: ModCom, PODA, PACER, + USCP 12/13/2021

Bonus week. The Senate is in today; the House is in tomorrow, with the ominous last vote predicted at “???” We’ll see both chambers vote to raise the vestigial debt ceiling thanks to legislation waiving the filibuster that apparently didn’t cause the demise of democracy or an end to the world’s greatest deliberative institution. Also on the Senate docket is a more pro-militarist version of the NDAA than usual, shepherded by the Armed Services committees outside of regular order— sans 1991 + 2002 AUMF repeal, sans independent protection for victims in sexual harassment cases, and with a $25 billion bump above what the Pentagon requested, equivalent to 50% of the cost to vaccinate the world against COVID. The House will ponder holding Mark Meadows in contempt and adopting legislation on Islamophobia. In committee: the Jan. 6th committee is expected to report out a contempt resolution on Meadows; the Coronavirus committee will consider the need to accelerate vaccinations — say, what about that extra $25 billion? Not listed on Congress.gov, but apparently happening: a Thursday House Admin hearing on the Smithsonian. There’s also a ton of nomination proceedings.

Continue reading →