The Senate finally is organized, budget reconciliation is prioritized, and impeachment has materialized. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe.

THE TOP LINE

Dems took control of Senate committees on Wednesday, two weeks late, when the chamber adopted its organizing resolution after Sen. McConnell withdrew his objections.

A security supplemental appropriations bill is in the works, according to Speaker Pelosi, who said Congress needs to strengthen security for Members. She also called for a 9/11-style commission to examine the security failures that led to the insurrection.

A strong Congress is essential to a strong democracy. With 3 dozen organizations, we sent a bipartisan coalition letter endorsing a 10% increase in funding for Congress, or a comparatively paltry $500ish million, to mitigate decades of damage to the Legislative branch. More here from us; and here’s Chris Marquette’s story.

House Dems will begin to craft a relief bill this week after a budget resolution was adoptedto allow the Senate to move the bill through reconciliation. No floor votes are scheduled this week or next, but House committees have a February 16 deadline to submit legislation for inclusion in the package. Budget reconciliation is a byzantine and lengthy process that can weaken legislation, but it is necessary so long as Sen. McConnell retains the ability to filibuster, blocking more productive legislative avenues.

Impeachment begins tomorrow; both sides filed their briefs last week.

Rep. Greene was stripped of her committee assignments after House Republicans refused to hold her accountable. The resolution was adopted with the support of 11 GOP Members. Rep. Babin, perhaps at the behest of leadership, offered an amendment to replace Rep. Greene’s name with Rep. Ilhan Omar. By choosing to substitute one member for another, these Republicans signaled they did not believe Rep. Greene’s behavior was worthy of punishment, for if they were serious about articulating a standard then Rep. Greene’s name would surely have stayed in place.

COVID-19 is mutating, spreading quickly, and possibly re-infecting people. The House should stop holding drawn-out floor votes and move to fully remote proceedings; the Senate should make it possible to remotely deliberate and vote in committees and on the floor.

Busy today? I’ll be speaking about “Creating and Improving Pathways for STEM Professionals to Advise Congress,” alongside Harvard’s Laura Manley and UMD’s Joan Burton, at the American Association for the Advancement of Science conference today at 3pm. Come to watch us, stay for Dr. Fauci.

Continue reading “First Branch Forecast: February 8, 2021” →

The Senate still has not organized, COVID is spreading like wildfire, the impeachment trial clock is ticking, unemployment benefits will expire soon, and white nationalists remain an active threat. Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Please tell your friends to subscribe.

THE TOP LINE

The no deal deal. Sen. McConnell is continuing to delay efforts by the Senate to enact an organizing resolution — the 117th Congress is 12 days old — and committees remained chaired by GOP members or no one at all. Burgess Everett reports Senate leaders are close to a deal, modeled on the 2001 power sharing agreement, with the remaining fight over an “open process.” They should make like an amendment tree and leave. (Sorry.)

The majority’s fragility was highlighted by the brief hospitalization of Sen. Leahy on Tuesday and Sen. Warner’s exposure to COVID on Wednesday and subsequent quarantine. Sen. McConnell almost lost his operating majority last Congress when a half-dozen Republicans had to quarantine. As you know, we think the Senate should be able to operate even if Members cannot attend in person; check out our continuity of Congress website for more.

The House plans to bring a FY 2021 budget reconciliation resolution directly to the floor, which, once passed, would help the Senate avoid filibuster drama (at the expense of certain provisions) but is procedurally complex, as Paul Krawzak and David Lerman explain. The House updated its schedule and Members are expected to stay in town some weekends to pass a relief package in time to extend benefits before they expire. Some Senate Republicans are complaining that the relief legislation is not bipartisan even as Senate Republicans block the Senate from organizing, the COVID pandemic and economic destabilization accelerate after insufficient Congressional action last Congress, and Democrats say they are willing to collaborate. My free advice: ten Senate Republicans should vow to unconditionally stop any filibuster of a COVID relief measure — which is why reconciliation is being used — as a gesture of goodwill.

Security supplemental. Congress is preparing to move a supplemental Legislative branch appropriations bill to address security issues relating to Congress, Lindsey McPherson and Katherine Tully-McManus report. We have done a ton of work watchdogging the Capitol Police, investigating cybersecurity issues, and delving into Continuity of Congress, and our FY 2021 appropriations recs are online and address these issues. More to come on this from us. In the meantime, security is being heightened at Congress. We are troubled by the USCP Chief’s closed-door recommendation for a permanent security fence, which we believe is both inappropriate for an open government and a distraction from the real causes of the attack of the Capitol, many of which center around major problems at the Capitol Police. (NB: The NYT has the USCP chief’s written testimony at a closed-door proceeding, which is most revealing for what it does not address.)

Inside threat? Comity between Democrats and Republicans has deteriorated even further in light of Republican anti-democratic rejection of the election results, the so-far unwillingness of Republican leadership to discipline radical right Republicans who are tied to the insurrection (some of whom espouse bizarre Qanon conspiracy theories and had previously threatened to physically harm lawmakers), other Republican members defying long standing rules prohibiting firearms on the House floor, and so on. As former Rep. Amash reminded us, “I was once stripped of a committee assignment for voting differently from Paul Ryan on a budget resolution.” It is past time for Republican leadership to put Qanon-believers and white supremacist allies off of congressional committees and out of the party. We will closely watch this week’s meeting between Leader McCarthy and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene.

We published a new white paper with Public Citizen entitled Article One: Rebuilding Our Congress that explains how Congress has weakened itself from the inside and the steps it can take to regain its power. Spoiler alert: It starts with Congress investing greater resources to strengthen and modernize its operations while also rebuilding its oversight and power of the purse authorities.

Getting credit? Has your boss had a bill become law but hasn’t gotten credit for it on Congress.gov because it was included as part of another bill? We’re making a list. Email and tell me about it at daniel@demandprogress.gov.

What’s due: February 2021 edition. We published our latest article on what reports are due from support offices and agencies. See the graphic below.

Continue reading “Forecast for February 1, 2021” →

In just three weeks, we’ve seen an insurrection, a second impeachment, and the emergence of “unified” government. We have not seen Republican leaders in Congress take personal responsibility for abetting Trump’s four-year long power grab, commit to holding Trump and his fellow travelers accountable, or earnestly pledging to work with Pres. Biden to repair our democracy. The autocratic fever has not broken.

The good news just keeps on coming. Tell your friends to subscribe to our little newsletter focused on strengthening the Legislative branch and don’t forget there’s more info at FirstBranchForecast.com.

THE TOP LINE

A new hope? Joe Biden, in his inaugural speech, called for an end to our “uncivil war.” He also swore an oath to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States.” These two commitments may prove mutually exclusive as many senior congressional Republicans gave aid, comfort, and encouragement to seditionists and authoritarians for years and continue to stoke anti-democratic fires to this very day.

Healing starts with accountability and Trump’s impeachment trial will begin on February 8. Already House Minority Leader McCarthy has performed a volte-face and now falsely claims Trump did not provoke the Capitol riot, adding that every American bears responsibility. (It’s not going over well.) Meanwhile, at least one of the rioters was charged with threatening to kill a specifically-named Member of Congress and the DOJ + FBI are considering not charging some of the mob who stormed the Capitol. Oh, and apparently Trump and a DOJ lawyer plotted to remove the acting AG and install a loyalist who would overturn the election. Without accountability, this is all going to happen again and the result next time may not be favorable to democracy. Incidentally, Anna Massoglia has an excellent report on the shell companies and dark money around the DC protests — hey, isn’t the fight against disclosure of money in politics Sen. McConnell’s signature issue, and concerns about decreasing corporate support to Republicans a potential driver of his political positioning?

Sen. McConnell has frozen the Senate by threatening to filibuster a new organizing resolution, the result of which is Republicans are still chairing Senate committees, staff hiring is frozen, and new Senators cannot be assigned to committees. Sen. McConnell demanded Democrats agree not to further weaken the filibuster against legislation — don’t forget, it already doesn’t apply to certain measures and McConnell himself has weakened its application — to preserve Sen. McConnell’s minority veto against Democratic priorities that could otherwise be realized through unified Democratic control of the House, Senate, and White House. Sen. Schumer rejected that proposal and “negotiations” are continuing. Sen. McConnell, who pushed (and perhaps masterminded some of) Trump’s anti-democratic policies, is now trying to hedge his bets on the out-of-office autocrat as part of his pursuit of Republican hegemony.

Legislation and hearings are not impossible in current circumstances, but are very, very difficult. We are looking forward to appropriations season, which is almost here. The top line spending numbers have to be coming soon, right?, and everyone wants to know about budget reconciliation. Since we have a one-track mind, last June we looked at Leg branch funding versus overall federal discretionary spending (it’s not a pretty picture): Congress is systematically de-funding itself. Also coming up: the House and Senate will soon set committee funding levels for the 117th Congress. Curious about the trends and who gets what? Check out our reports for the House and Senate.

Continue reading “First Branch Forecast: January 25, 2021” →

THE TOP LINE
The insurrection is not over. The likelihood of violence at federal and state capitals across the country and ongoing organizing by white nationalists means the danger of immediate political violence has not passed even as the national guard and local police forces are on high alert. Meanwhile, the Twitter pundits who tittered that the sacking of the Capitol Building was a mere beer hall putsch have come to acknowledge the attackers were better armed, better organized, and more dangerous than they had ever guessed — and came within moments of decapitating the legislature and murdering the presidential line of succession.

Too many officials in the Republican party, meanwhile, are still giving aid and comfort to the enemies of democracy. Only ten House Republicans voted (232-197) to remove Donald Trump from power. Outgoing Sen. Majority Leader McConnell rebuffed Sen. Schumer’s request to immediately reconvene the Senate, ensuring a removal vote cannot happen while Trump is in office. Sen. McConnell, a political Von Hindenburg who used Trump’s popularity with the base to move his ultra-conservative political agenda, has found his party’s beholdenness to the feckless aspiring autocrat is now imperiling corporate support for his party and slightly slowing the revolving door. Consequently, Sen. McConnell belatedly hinted his openness to Trump’s removal in order to restore corporate support, which is (also belatedly) being cut off to the party and major conservative groups as donors realize the danger to their brands. There’s talk that some Republicans voted against removing Trump out of fear for their physical safety, although many likely were focused on their political well-being; meanwhile Sen. McConnell is using the Trump removal effort to hinder the incoming Biden administration.

The big lie, “stop the steal,” nurtured by many Republicans, is an inversion of reality: the real fraud is the decades-long voter suppression efforts that arise from gerrymandering and efforts to disenfranchise minority, younger, and less wealthy voters. We know this, in part, because we have the secret files of the guy who led this effort. Voter purges, witness intimidation, ID requirements, and gerrymandering are rooted in Jim Crow practices and a long history of American violence aimed at subverting our political institutions. Those who wish to argue #bothsides on this matter need only to consider the 138 House Republicans and 7 Senate Republicans who voted — in the midst of the sacking of the Capitol — to exclude votes by the state of Pennsylvania in determining the presidential winner. The 8 Senate Republicans who voted to ignore the election — Sens. Cruz, Hawley, Hyde-Smith, Kennedy, Lummis, Marshall, Scott, and Tuberville — surely have fellow travelers among their colleagues, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham, who is actively working to undermine Trump’s removal. In the House, Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s former boss and mentor, Rep. Bill Thomas, went on TV to excoriate Rep. McCarthy, calling him a “hypocrite” for supporting “the phony lies the president perpetuated.”

There is a direct line between Charlottesville and #bothsides to “stop the steal” and sedition. Members of the mob had maps, weapons, two-way radios, military and police training, and some say they had inside help… including, potentially, from Members of Congress. We can see they were encouraged — some would say incited — to violence: the unhinged rantings of a handful of particularly vocal Qanon-friendly House and Senate Republicans were buttressed and often echoed by leadership. The willingness to physically contest even the most simple rules, such as mask requirements and gun prohibitions on the chamber floor, suggest some members inside Congress are engaged in agitprop, looking to the mob to elevate their political fortunes.

The city on the hill. And so on Wednesday, Pres.-elect Biden will take the oath of office, surrounded by 1,000 supporters, ringed by 20,000+ security personnel, and that morning Trump will flee the crime scene. Various Inspectors General and congressional committees are spinning up investigations of what happened — we joined a panel discussion on this topic on Friday — and the work to repair our democracy will begin even as 7 in 10 Republicans believe his election was fraudulent and those out of power plot for 2022, 2024, and beyond. For our part, we will continue to focus on improving Congress’s ability to do its job, government accountability, and rebuilding our democracy.

Continue reading “First Branch Forecast: January 18, 2021” →

We are overwhelmed and you are too. If you are feeling like you need to talk to someone, call the national suicide helpline at 800-273-8255. You can call even if you are just feeling powerful emotions. It’s perfectly okay to do so. Congressionals can reach out to the Office of Employee Assistance (there’s a recent Dear Colleague with contact info).

Seriously, friends. I’ve seen the faces of the journalists and the staffers who are on the hill — and those who watched in horror from elsewhere. You look just like those of us who were on the hill for 9/11 and the anthrax attacks. I can see it in the flat affect. Do not try to power through. Do not wait because you think someone else needs help more. Do not push it aside even if you were not there in person. It’s okay to find someone to talk to. Tell them I sent ya.

THE TOP LINE

A mob whipped up by President Trump, abetted by his allies in Congress and fed with years of lies, sacked the U.S. Capitol. The well-armed insurrection, which included former members of the military, current local law enforcement, and white nationalists, resulted in a handful of deaths and a near miss in an effort to decapitate the Legislative branch. The noose and gallows erected outside the Capitol building makes clear what would have happened had they managed to capture members of Congress.

The House will impeach Donald Trump because a futile effort to get his hand-picked cabinet enablers to invoke the 25th amendment is destined to fail. Senator McConnell is trying to prevent the effort, claiming it will waste a lot of time in the Senate, but that’s just nonsense. Sen. McConnell had no problem speeding through impeachment in 2019. There are no material contested facts now. Any delay would be the height of foolishness.

Accountability. Just this past Monday, a week ago today, in response to calls for impeachment, House Democratic Caucus Chair Hakeem Jeffries said “We’re not looking backwards, we’re looking forward.” If only he could have looked forward to Wednesday (or learned from history, where politicians have made the exact same mistake). Friends, accountability is always backward looking. A key job of Congress is accountability! How many committees are focused on oversight? You must learn from the past, hold people accountable, and fix the problems — and only by doing that can you stop those bad things from happening again. In Rep. Jeffries’ defense, he was taking the party line from his leadership, even as the rank-and-file knew that you can’t move on until you clean up the current mess.

Unity. We are hearing the old chestnut that America needs to unify — the siren song of those who want to evade accountability. Despite the catastrophic events, six GOP Senators and 138 House Members voted to object to the state election certifications, which were not in doubt by any fair minded person. A snap poll suggested that 45% of Republicans “approve of the storming of the Capitol building.” If Sen. McConnell had a majority in the Senate, and thus the ability to block measures from going to the floor, what would be the consequences for Pres.-elect Biden’s nominees or any substantive legislation to redress what has happened? Unity can only come after doing the right thing, which starts with impeachment and removal.

No one could have seen this coming? Nonsense. While few in the press (except Roll Call) paid attention, we’ve been focusing on problems with the Capitol Police since 2018. In a July 2019 document outlining our questions for the USCP, we raised the concern that “resources are being deployed away from protecting the Capitol, which could create security vulnerabilities.” There are major structural problems with how Congress manages itself that go far beyond the USCP — as readers of our newsletter know — and in the USCP context, they are compounded by a lack of transparency and accountability. We applaud Chairs Ryan and Lofgren and RM Davis for taking this seriously before it was front-page news, but even they, champions that they are, were limited by political realities outside of their control. Maybe that will change. We stand ready to share what we have learned and observed with any committees of inquiry and with the press. But we will tell you this now: while Congress is woefully underfunded, the problem for the USCP was not insufficient resources. (By the way, if we were to identify entities that have performed badly over the years, the USCP’s Public Information Office is simply the worst we have ever encountered in government, and that is saying something.)

Continue reading “First Branch Forecast: January 11, 2020” →

THE TOP LINE

Welcome back, Congress. It’s like you never left. Did you miss us? If so, make sure you subscribe (and tell your friends.) Our back issues are here.

Tick Tock: On Friday (Jan.1), the Senate overrode the NDAA veto (even as Sen. McConnell killed the boost to COVID relief), and today the House and Senate convene for the 117th Congress. The House is expected to adopt its rules on Monday; the Georgia elections, which decide control of the Senate, are on Tuesday, as are the House’s consideration of several good government bills on suspension (including the Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act); the House and Senate (in joint session) will count the electoral college vote on Wednesday.

So what exactly is a continuing body? The Senate considers itself a continuity body and the House does not. What this means, in part, is that the House must re-establish its rules and committees at the start of each Congress, but the Senate doesn’t. And yet, the House somehow has common-law rules that guide some of its day-one procedures and began operating today, but some Senate committees cannot operate because they are missing their chairs and have yet to reach an operating agreement (pending the results of upcoming elections). Weird.

Continue reading “Forecast for January 3, 2021” →

You shouldn’t be at work and neither should I. But since we’re here, this is the latest on the decline and fall of the American republic. Happy holidays!

THE TOP LINE
The COVID/Omnibus bill has been hung up by Pres. Trump and the circumstances could mean a government shutdown lasting two weeks or more… and there’s little Congress can do. Update: As of 8pm Sunday, Pres. Trump has now signed the bill, apparently flipping his position, albeit with the result of undermining a week’s work of unemployment benefits for millions of people.

New Congress? The House of Representatives will convene on Sunday, January 3rd, when it will adopt rules and vote on the Speaker. The Senate will also meet, but absent the results of the Georgia elections — set for January 5th, although it may take time to certify the results — it will likely do little.

Who is going to object to the electoral college vote? The counting of that vote is set for January 6th. Here’s a letter from 18 House Republicans suggesting they will object. CRS has a report on counting electoral votes by Congress.

Continue reading “Forecast for December 28, 2020” →

THE TOP LINE

You gotta be kidding. We prep this newsletter during the week and finalize it over the weekend. Alas, there’s no way we could possibly evaluate what is in the appropriations + COVID bill(s) for you — and there’s no way most Members of Congress could know what they’re voting on, either. It looks like the negotiations took so long Congress will do a 24-hour CR for when the 2-day CR elapses Sunday at midnight. Details will leak out after House leadership informs members as to its contents (which, as of this writing, are sparse.)

There’s no way members of the House or Senate will have any idea of the details of what’s inside the bill (except, in broad strokes, what they’re told), they won’t have enough time to figure it out, and, even if they understood its contents, the political circumstances mean they won’t have the opportunity to amend or object. This is business as usual for leadership-controlled brinkmanship. Create an artificial cliff (like the end of a CR), wait until it is about to expire, put a holiday break on the other side, and jam a bill through.

COVID RELIEF? This entire COVID relief process has been madness. And the Washington Post’s report that White House staff talked outgoing Pres. Trump from proposing $2,000 stimulus checks while House Dems negotiated themselves down from $3T to less than $1T is ::chef’s kiss::. Political analysts suggest the main reason Sen. McConnell finally was willing to entertain any relief legislation was to avoid undermining elections in Georgia, in which Republican control of the Senate is at stake. If we were in Congress, it would be inappropriate to speculate on motives, but we are not. Our guess is Senate Republicans will block any future relief measures, at the strong encouragement of Sen. McConnell, banking on his belief that making things worse for Americans means that Pres.-elect Biden will get the blame.

Like an iceberg. The process by which Members are selected for committees is one of the most important — and opaque — processes in Congress. As that has been happening right now, we explore it down below.

Rules, rules, rules! We are very excited to see what emerges out of the House Rules Committee process, which will generate new rules for the 117th Congress. By now you know we have our wish list. We suspect our friends on the Rules Committee will be working right up until the deadline to get everything drafted. (Good luck!) While we’re at it, are any changes in store for the Senate?

Continue reading “Forecast for December 21, 2020” →

THE TOP LINE

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas. I really don’t want to talk about the totally avoidable train-wreck that is the CR, approps omnibus, and COVID relief efforts, which are as infuriating as they are predictable. The latest contretemps are the natural consequence of institutional design and political incentives, shaped by those in power to maintain their power. It is not a story of political polarization; it is not a story of earmarks; it is not a story of a broken budget process; and it is not a story of #bothsides. The final result will be insufficient to the moment, directed by those at the top, and designed to preserve leadership’s control over the chambers, with the anti-governance folks having a veto over those who want to help people in the face of a pandemic claiming 3,100 lives daily. (Maybe I shouldn’t write these newsletters before drinking coffee?)

Intrigue. Behind the scenes, the deck chairs are being re-arranged with respect to the internal power structures in both chambers —

• House: We’ve already seen leadership elections and chair selections in the House (check out our leadership list), with committee appointments to come. The evaporating Democratic majority means a very close call for Speaker Pelosi — a(n unlikely) challenge might destabilize her re-election by the full chamber — and very tight margins over the next two years to move legislation (which likely will happen on a party-line basis). Meanwhile, the House is working to update its rules, which had important reforms last Congress and may contain additional welcome improvements; they may also reflect mechanisms to sustain majority control.

• Senate: Senate Democrats have been working to create a few more opportunities for members to serve as committee chairs (including two unusual but welcome updates to their (secret) caucus rules.) We don’t know what the Senate will look like until the outstanding Georgia elections are resolved. A shift from Sens. McConnell to Schumer, while unlikely, could unlock the possibility of much overdue reforms to that chamber and would make it possible to address aspects of our democracy that Sen. McConnell has worked for decades to unbalance.

Continue reading “Forecast for December 14, 2020” →

THE TOP LINE

Agreement? House and Senate appropriators reached a bipartisan agreement last Tuesday on the 302b numbers — the amount of funding available for each appropriations subcommittee — but LOL, we won’t know these numbers until the bill is released. Is there a path to completing the omnibus on time? Kevin McCarthy announced he will oppose the deal ($) because it does not follow the (pre-COVID) 2019 budget cap agreement. So much for a veto-proof vote?

Committee vacancies and waivers — i.e., who can serve on which committee — can be a touchy subject, which is why we’re glad the CPCC has put together this handy compilation of expected House chair vacancies. This week will see movement in the House on who will fill the big chairs on Appropriations, Foreign Affairs, and Agriculture. (How do they get chosen? We cover what we know of the House process, but we still don’t know all the members of the Democratic Steering and Policy Committee, who do the winnowing.) We’re also keeping our eyes on how the appropriations cardinals are chosen, but we don’t know when that will happen.

Senate committees are in limbo, including the ratio of majority to minority staff, awaiting the resolution of two senatorial elections in Georgia. WaPo’s Paul Kane described the consequences of three headless committees that can’t hold confirmation hearings, a senator who may lose his job for two days, and the potential for a lot of confusion. We previously wrote about how Senate committees get their funding and their funding levels, and CRS has more on historic ratios of Senators on committees.

Continue reading “Forecast for November 30, 2020.” →