First Branch Forecast for July 11, 2022: The Plot Thickens

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This week. There are just a few weeks left until August recess — three in the House, four in the Senate — which means everything’s accelerating.

• They’re back. The Senate is back on Monday and the House is back on Tuesday. It’s NDAA week in the House (amendments are here); Senate Dems appear to be lining up another stab at reconciliation. On suspension in the House is the Improving Government for America’s Taxpayers Act, which strengthens how GAO reports to Congress on open priority recommendations. (Maybe the Senate should be thinking about hotlining the bill?)

• Looking at the committee calendar, we note a Thursday ModCom hearing on modernizing constituent services. Also, join our panel discussion on congressional unionization Wednesday, which anticipates the regs going into effect next Monday. (CPSA & DWS happy hour this Friday at 6 — coincidence?)

• Looking ahead, the House will vote on an approps package of six bills, i.e., HR 8294 containing transportation, agriculture, energy and water, financial services, environment, and military construction, the week of July 18th, according to BGOV ($). Submit your amendments to House Rules by this Wednesday at 10 AM. Presumably we will see a Senate approps markup or release of their bills in the next few weeks, and possibly a floor vote on the other 6 House approps bills — watch for triangulation on defense spending. Also watch out for a Joe Manchin-sized reconciliation package, which in theory could happen any day now.

Do you have a pet bill that must move in the next few weeks or risk dying at the end of this Congress? We’re keeping informal track of bills to strengthen Congress, promote government transparency, and bring balance to the force. Just hit reply — yes, those all go to me — with the bill name, number, and why there oughta be a law (or a resolution). We’ll feature (anonymously) some of those bills-on-the-bubble in the hopes it might spur a Senate hotline or House suspension.

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First Branch Forecast for June 27, 2022: Apropos everything

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What to expect from Congress this week? The House is holding a committee work week before joining the Senate, which is already out on recess. They will return the week of July 11th. We are writing this newsletter before 5pm on Friday, so you’ll have to check the House committee calendar for upcoming hearings, but we know the upcoming week is filled with Approps bills markups. By the end of the week, the appropriations committee process will be complete on the House side — phew — at least until there’s an agreement on the top line numbers, and we can expect the bills to move on the floor soon. The Senate approps timeline is more difficult to divine, but given that the deadlines for public witness testimony wrap up July 1, we could start seeing subcommittee markup notices in July. Or Senate Dems will simply release their draft bills prior to summer recess while leaders negotiate over the top line numbers. Stay tuned.

We’re not going to address the big news out of the Supreme Court on abortion and guns, or what’s happening with the NDAA, or the gun control law, the January 6th stuff, and most of the items that came out of the appropriations process. It’s simply too much for us to manage, but you can expect some of these items — to the extent they fit within this newsletter’s mission — coming up in the upcoming weeks.

Last week saw several big wins for strengthening the Leg branch. On Tuesday, a host of excellent congressional data modernization improvements were announced at the quarterly meeting of the entity formerly known as the Bulk Data Task Force; significant improvements in funding and operations for the Legislative branch were favorably reported by the full House Appropriations committee; and a significant increase in the wage available to interns was promulgated by the House Admin Committee. The House Defense Approps bill contains language to sunset the two AUMFs from 2001 and 2002 that have been abused ever since. We’ve got more below, along with summaries of two hearings that helped define what still needs to be done to modernize Congress: a House ModCom hearing on Congress and Technology and the Senate’s Leg Branch Approps hearing on the GAO & GPO.

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First Branch Forecast for June 13, 2022: Everything at once

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As hearings into the Trump insurrection start, we join the #CapitolStrong community in recognizing that this can bring up strong feelings among the Members, staff, employees, journalists, and others who work on Capitol Hill or are close to those who do. Some mental health resources are available on the coalition website.

This week. The House is in on Monday and the Senate is in on Monday. The House begins subcommittee markup of its appropriations bills and will hold three hearings this week into the Trump insurrection. Senate Armed Services is holding subcommittee markups of the National Defense Authorization Act.

APPROPRIATIONS

House Appropriations subcommittee markups will take place June 15-22, with full committee markups June 22-30, per the official announcement. Our spreadsheet includes the updated schedule for both chambers in an easy-to-read format. (Schedules are subject to change). We note there is no agreement on top line numbers, so funding levels are still subject to negotiation, and Republicans are already suggesting a short-term CR.

Tracking appropriations markups can be challenging. How far in advance does a meeting have to be noticed? When are the draft bills and reports due to committee members? To the public? We answer all those questions, and more, in our perennial guide on how to track House approps markups.

What will we be tracking? We’ll be keeping a particular close eye on Leg Branch approps, scheduled for subcommittee markup on Wednesday, June 15th, with a full committee markup on the 22nd; FSGG, which is June 16th and 24th; CJS, on June 22nd and 29th; and Defense, June 15th and 22nd. Also, the subcommittee allocations will be adopted in the House on June 30th — this is what establishes the funding levels for the twelve appropriations subcommittees for the chamber… although presumably the bills considered up to that point will be a good indicator. We’ll be watching those top-line numbers and whether good government priorities make it into the bill + committee reports.

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First Branch Forecast for June 6, 2022: Congress heats up

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This week. We promised we’d take the week off from the newsletter, but we just can’t quit you. Please note that House subcommittee markups for the NDAA are happening this week and appropriations hearings are continuing. (See our appropriations tracker for the latest deadlines.) We understand the January 6th Committee will hold the first hearing in a series of eight at 8 PM EST on Thursday, June 9.

The Judiciary Committee at Work. The House Judiciary Committee held a markup on Thursday, June 2nd, focused on gun violence, entitled “Protecting our kids.” The proceedings were unusual in that they were scheduled when the House was in recess (although still holding pro forma sessions). Remote deliberations, whether hybrid or fully virtual, allow a committee to quickly respond to current events regardless of whether the chamber is in session. One big, and often unfair criticism, is that Congress is not “at work” when it is in recess, but the reality is remote deliberations allow members and committees to perform legislative work based upon exigent needs, not a travel schedule. Moreover, when Congress is able to act on time-sensitive matters, it prevents the erosion of its power to the Executive branch, which is a big issue for anyone who cares about the strength of our democracy.

War Powers Resolution. A war powers resolution that would end unauthorized U.S. military participation in the Saudi-led war in Yemen was introduced during the May 31st pro forma session, co-sponsored by dozens of members and enjoying broad support from civil society. Endorsing the proposition that Congress decides matters of war and peace is a BFD, as a former senator would say, and there’s great need to strengthen how Congress can exercise its rightful authority. If you want to know why this matters, look no further than Saturday’s blockbuster Washington Post report entitled, “Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen have been called war crimes. Many relied on U.S. support.” Despite the so-called end to US support for “offensive operations,” “maintenance contracts fulfilled by both the U.S. military and U.S. companies to coalition squadrons carrying out offensive missions have continued,” with airstrikes responsible for the vast majority of civilian deaths.

Pathways to Congressional Service are the focus of a forthcoming House Modernization Committee hearing on Wednesday, June 8th.

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First Branch Forecast for May 31, 2022: Capture the Flag

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This week. Happy Memorial Day recess—both chambers are out this week, giving us (and hopefully you, too) a chance to take a break, or at least slow down.

Approps. We were expecting Senate Leg branch approps hearing with the USCP, GAO, and Library of Congress last week, but it was postponed. Stay tuned.

• Approps timeline. Here is our list of deadlines to submit appropriations requests and testimony. According to Bloomberg government ($): in the House expect June markups teeing up July floor votes; in the Senate expect markups in July and early August. The Senate timeline will depend heavily on whether senior Appropriators reach an agreement on the top line spending numbers for defense (wartime) and non-defense (peacetime) spending. Summer recess is currently scheduled to start July 29 (House) and August 5 (Senate).

• More appropriations. It’s possible there will be more supplemental appropriations bills, and of course there’s the upcoming markup of the (authorizing) National Defense Authorization Act, which means the calendar could go sideways.

• Earmarks? Appropriations bills could contain significantly more earmark requests than last year’s, and more people are requesting earmarks, according to Roll Call, although the total amount is kept as a constant percentage of federal discretionary spending.

Unionization timeline clarified. OCWR published a statement that regulations allowing House staff to unionize will go into effect on July 18, 2022 (not July 15, as we wrote last week). The regulations were published on May 16, 2022. The OCWR has the authority to shorten that time period for “good cause,” an authority it thus far has declined to exercise.

Next week. We’re planning on taking a week off from the newsletter, unless of course something big happens. Send us your tips!

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First Branch Forecast for May 9, 2022: Union means together

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Welcome back. The Senate is in today; the House is back tomorrow. On the House floor, a resolution to allow House staff to unionize will be brought to a vote later this week. Senate Leg branch approps has started its hearings, with the Architect, CBO, and Senate SAA on Wednesday; House FSGG approps will hear from the federal judiciary on Thursday and hold a member day hearing on Friday.

TREATING STAFF LIKE PEOPLE

Overview. This week had a ton of good news for Congressional staff. A vote is set to adopt Rep. Levin’s resolution that would afford many House political and non-political staff the opportunity to organize into a union. Speaker Pelosi issued a pay order that will require, by September 1, that all House staff be paid no less than $45,000 annually. And Speaker Pelosi increased the maximum pay a staffer can earn to $203,700, from $199,300, an amount identical to the top rate for Senate staff. The minimum pay levels and pay order enjoys strong bipartisan support, and rightly so. Last week Reps. Hoyer and Jeffries sent an excellent letter calling for COLAs for political offices and a wide range of improved staff benefits. And, lest we forget, the House Modernization Committee has advanced scores of recommendations to improve legislative operations. This House is on track to improve the working conditions for its staff in the 117th Congress more than Congress has over the last three decades combined.

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First Branch Forecast for May 2, 2022: A real coup

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This week. The Senate is in; the House is out until May 10. We are sending an abbreviated First Branch Forecast because we are tired. Don’t worry, we’ll have the highlights from the gazillion hearings this past week, including 3 Leg Branch, 2 CJS, and House Judiciary and ModCom hearings.

TREATING STAFF LIKE PEOPLE

No one noticed, but the Office of Congressional Workplace Rights published a notice of proposed rulemaking on updating outdated overtime regulations for the Legislative branch. This is a BFD if you think that staff who work more than 40 hours a week should receive overtime pay. And we do. OCWR said this rulemaking would “modify this substantially lower salary test set by the 1996 FLSA Substantive Regulations that are financially outdated and yet remain in effect.” How out of date? The current requirements make staff eligible for overtime only if they earn under $13,000 per year, way below poverty level. If you think it should be higher, public comments are due by May 26 to rule-comments@ocwr.gov.

Compensating Leg branch staff on par with Exec branch staff remains a priority for Demand Progress and other civil society organizations, Chris Cioffi noted in Roll Call last week. The House should implement the House IG’s 2021 recommendations to ensure pay parity and provide an annual cost-of-living adjustment for Leg branch employees.

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First Branch Forecast: April 25, 2022

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This week. The Senate is in today; the House is in tomorrow. This week, we’ll be glued to another round of Leg branch approps hearings on the Library of Congress, GPO, & the AOC; a CJS approps double-header with the Justice Department, a ModCom hearing on modernizing the legislative process; and a House Judiciary hearing on judicial ethics. Oh, and on suspension is the Courthouse Ethics and Transparency Act, which passed the Senate already and, if enacted, would create a stock trading and online financial disclosure system for the judiciary.

Unionization timing. We’re still waiting to see when House leadership will finally bring the congressional unionization resolution to a floor. The Congressional Workers Union called for a floor vote this week. It’s been 81 days since Speaker Pelosi offered full support for Congressional staff to unionize (on Feb. 3rd) and 54 days since the House Admin Committee held a hearing on unionization (on March 2nd.) As this decision is entirely within their power, why the delay? Vox’s excellent explainer on Congressional unionization asks “how committed are [House Democrats] to unions when it’s their own employees who want one?” Well?

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