Forecast for August 27, 2021

Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your regular look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. This is an unusual Friday edition; we are hoping to not publish next week. Subscribe here.

THE TOP LINE
The House returns for a committee work week on Tuesday; the Senate is out until September 13th.The House’s National Defense Authorization Act markup will start on September 1. There are a number of important deadlines: House and Senate committees are expected to report their portions of the reconciliation package by September 15th; appropriations bills of some kind must be enacted before the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30th; and the debt limit will be reached in October or November.

Don’t forget: The Library of Congress has a virtual public forum (which means you!) on its digital services set for Sept. 2nd. This is an opportunity to ask for new tools, features, and information from the Library.

CAPITOL SECURITY
A “rally” by Trump insurrectionists and fellow right wing extremists set for Sept. 18th is alarming Capitol security officials who fear it will be violent; the event is set for a Saturday and reports do not indicate the expected size of the crowd. Earlier in the week is the 20th anniversary of 9/11, which also is raising alarm bells, although news reports provide no real information about what kind of threat, if any, may arise. We cannot tell the extent to which USCP operations have been reformed in the last 8 months, but transforming the agency into a capable security force will take years and we have grave doubts about the ability of its intelligence units to assess the circumstances.

After it was reported in the press, the USCP issued a press release acknowledging it completed its internal investigation into the shooting of Ashli Babbitt. The findings (or a summary thereof) were not released so we do not know what it says except flat assertions in the news release itself; the officer will not face internal discipline; and the officer (who is not being officially named) and their family have been “subject of numerous credible and specific threats.” The twitter thread in response to the USCP announcement apparently includes the name of the officer and a revolting amount of insurrection-related vitriol.

That officer, Lt. Michael Byrd, gave an interview with NBC news where he explained his actions were a last resort to protect members of Congress holed up in the House chamber. Lt. Byrd has received death threats and has gone into hiding for months as Trump insurrectionists and fellow travelers turn the unfortunate but likely inescapable shooting of insurrectionist Babbitt into a twisting rallying cry. We found this coverage provides the best context.

Ring, ring. The January 6th Committee is set to request telephone companies preserve phone records of certain Members of Congress, among other people.

The Capitol Police responded to a new IG flash report with this press statement. Oddly, IG flash report #5 is not publicly available, but the AP reported on it. The headline: “Report details mishandling of police emergency system on 1/6.” The USCP IG does not release reports to the public as a matter of policy (even though it’s routine for IGs across the government), although House Admin has been releasing the IG’s new flash reports, which appear to be designed for public consumption. Appropriators had requested the IG compile a list of reports over the last three years that it could release, and that report is due by September 30th. Maybe the IG should just go ahead and release this one instead of holding it for the likely House Admin hearing.

The August Capitol bomber, Floyd Ray Roseberry, has been “diagnosed with bipolar disorder and needs more medical treatment.” Roseberry, who said he had a bomb but did not have one that functioned, made a number of far right statements during a stand-off with security forces. To my mind, this highlights the danger of violent rhetoric that can activate all sorts of people.

Oddly, but not unsurprisingly, the U.S. Capitol Police’s weekly arrest summary does not include the arrest of Floyd Ray Roseberry. The Capitol Police put out a press release on 8/19 saying they arrested him, so we know they did it, and yet… nothing. This suggests, as we have long suspected, that the Capitol Police’s weekly arrest summaries are not comprehensive or reliable. When we dug into this previously, the USCP gave us a cryptic response about what they exclude from these reports.

7 Capitol Police officers have filed a civil lawsuit against ex-Pres. Trump and others “claiming they conspired to violently overturn the results of the 2020 election.” Josh Gerstein, as usual, does a good job of putting this all in context and links to the filing — bravo. You can follow the docket (including getting alerts) on CourtListener.

TRANSPARENCY
Appropriations requests are published online by Sen. Braun, which is something we don’t recall having seen before. This includes the date a letter was sent, the sender, the dollar amount, and the purpose, but not the text of the letter itself.

How does newly enacted legislation amend prior legislation? The use of technology to answer that tricky question has moved a step forward with GPO’s publication of statute compilations in USLM XML. If that last sentence is confusing, what it means is that we now have modern metadata for laws that are not officially included in the US code so it becomes possible to automate updates of that legislation and also to show how draft legislation would amend those laws.

The Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act has passed the House and Senate, going to Pres. Biden’s desk for signature. It has earned bipartisan praise. It requires the publication of an agency’s current and historical Congressional Budget Justifications in a central place online so it is possible to find them easily.

Declassification reforms are classified. Yes, the fixes pushed by Sen. Wyden are contained in the classified annex, so we can’t know what they are. What is classified legislation? Well…..

ODDS AND ENDS
Lobbying. Lobbying by an industry increases when there is greater consolidation (i.e., fewer players) in the industry, according to a new report from the American Economic Liberties Project. The tentative conclusion: monopolies seek to acquire political power through lobbying to avoid competition in the open market.

Endless impeachments from here on out is the premise of Paul Kane’s opinion piece, pointing to Republican calls to impeach Biden over all sorts of stuff, including by Republican notables. He quickly pivots to #bothsides, blaming the bases of both parties, so I don’t exactly recommend his analysis. But Republicans do seem more likely to impeach any Democratic president and Democrats are more likely to impeach Republican presidents who follow in the Trumpian model.

You shouldn’t be afraid at work, but congressional staff are becoming resigned to political violence being part of the job.

Rep. Mooney may have used campaign funds for personal use and used gift cards to hide the recipients of campaign funds, which are no-nos and, according to Roll Call, the topic of an OCE report to the Ethics committee.

ERRATA
The Senate Secretary of the Senate, not the Sergeant at Arms, oversees the Office of Senate Security. I know that, having written a primer on it a while back, but I mixed it up in the last issue.

CALENDAR
Down the road…

• The Library of Congress will host a public forum on Congress.gov on September 2nd from 1 to 4pm ET.

• Make Congress Great Again — the Lincoln Network is hosting a reception on Congressional modernization and reform on September 2nd from 5-7 pm ET. RSVP here.
• Internapalooza, a virtual orientation for interns, will take place on September 9th and 10th.

• The 30th annual LegisTech for Democracy Conference will be held online on September 13th and 14th — save the date now.

• The Senate will return on September 13th.

• Constitution Day is September 17th.

Forecast for August 23, 2021

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Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your regular look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Subscribe here.

THE TOP LINE

They’re back? The House of Representatives returns for two days to pass a Budget resolution, a voting rights bill, and 12 suspension bills (including, we hope, the Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act.) The Senate does not return until September 13th. A classified briefing is set for House Members on Tuesday regarding Afghanistan. Except for a House Rules Committee hearing, we don’t see any meetings scheduled.

Don’t forget: The Library of Congress has a virtual public forum (which means you!) on its digital services set for Sept. 2nd. This is an opportunity to ask for new tools, features, and information from the Library.

OVERSIGHT OF CONGRESS

Public access to congressional records is the focus of two lawsuits filed by National Security Counselors on behalf of journalist Shawn Musgrave. The litigation is based upon the legal doctrine known as “a common law right of access” — that individuals have a right to inspect and copy public documents. We have long been frustrated by Congress’s non-disclosure of records it has required itself to make publicly available, although this litigation focuses on records that likely should be publicly available but may not be required to be available. For context, NARA’s FOIA Advisory Committee recently recommended extending FOIA or establishing a FOIA-like process to elements of the Legislative and Judicial branches. A few elements of the Legislative branch already have FOIA-like processes.

The two cases are Musgrave v. Manger and Musgrave v. Warner. You can read the court orders in the cases not because the federal courts make them available to you for free — they don’t and the courts are resisting open access efforts — but because a nonprofit organization created an online tool called RECAP (PACER spelled backwards) to crowdsource public access. But I digress.

Musgrave v. Manger contains four requests in one. The first request concerns U.S. Capitol Police surveillance footage from January 6th. The second request focuses on transparency at the U.S. Capitol Police, requesting records concerning their implementation of Appropriator-requested transparency measures to (a) create a FOIA-like process for the public to request USCP records, and (b) review and identify USCP Inspector General reports that could be made publicly available. The third request goes to the House and Senate Sergeants at Arms and requests the release of their Security Policy Manuals, which governs the handling of national security information. The final request is for a House SAA-prepared report concerning the levels of clearances held by Congressional staff. (An analogous document is released by the IC.)

• According to the pleadings: (1) The Capitol Police are claiming that surveillance footage from January 6th used in support of criminal prosecutions are not public records. (2a) The Capitol Police appear to be unaware of the Appropriator-requested FOIA-like transparency process they are requested to implement and (2b) the Capitol Police IG did not respond to the request for its analysis of reports it could release. (3) The House’s General Counsel has (erroneously, in my view) asserted that its Security Manual could only be released by a majority vote of the full House and that the Manual is not a record; the Senate Office of Legal Counsel says the common law does not apply to Senate records and, even if it did, “significant national security interests” implicated by the release would outweigh disclosure. (4) The House’s General Counsel asserts the request should be made to the Appropriations Committee — which seems in tension with their assertion concerning their Security Manual — and that the report is protected by the Speech or Debate Clause of the Constitution.

Musgrave v. Warner concerns the non-disclosure of the Senate Intelligence Committee’s torture report, which is 6,700 pages long and evaluates in significant detail the CIA’s “detention and interrogation” program, including many “inaccuracies” of claims made by the CIA and the agency’s efforts to mislead the public and the committee. Naturally, the Intelligence Community fought against the release of the damning document and only the Executive Summary was released in 2014 after an arduous declassification process that Senator Feinstein said included the CIA spying on committee staff. The report eventually will become subject to a declassification request in 2029 as part of President Obama’s records after significant shenanigans by Sen. Burr and the Intelligence Community that include Executive branch officials refusing to read the report and destroying the copies they held. The purpose of the report was for the Executive branch to learn lessons from its misbehavior, an effort that continues to be thwarted. The litigation asks for a copy of the report.

What does all this mean? This litigation appears to have two clever purposes. First, it is a good probe of whether courts would recognize a common law right of access to Legislative branch records, what such a right might encompass, and how it would work. Second, all of these records should be publicly available (with redactions in some instances) and this could be a good way to prod the House, Senate, and Capitol Police to address long standing deficiencies. In my view, the further we move from legislative deliberations — the work of member offices and committees — the stronger the arguments become in favor of disclosure of Congressional (and Judicial) records. There’s no good reason to treat the Capitol Police differently from the FBI or Secret Service. Will the courts get involved? IDK. Is it a good thing? IDK, but Congress could preempt this litigation by releasing the records and putting in place reasonable disclosure policies that would deprive journalists of such favorable factual circumstances.

Continue reading “Forecast for August 23, 2021”

Special Forecast for August 13, 2021

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Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. No, it’s not Monday, but with the Congress away, it seemed best to send this lest we get inundated with out-of-office responses. We’re planning on taking a little break with Congress out unless something major happens… or we get bored. Subscribe here.

THE TOP LINE

The pay ceiling for senior House staff has been raised. Speaker Pelosi issued a pay order that increases the maximum potential salaries for many House staff to $199,300, which just happens to be the equivalent of an SES Level II. Staff salaries had been kept below pay levels for rank-and-file members, which themselves have been frozen at $174,000 since 2009 and are down the equivalent of $75k since 1992 (in constant dollars). By decoupling staff and member pay, it becomes possible to address long standing pleas from support offices and members alike that it is increasingly difficult to retain senior staff because of increasing costs of living and the tremendous opportunities to earn more elsewhere. This is a retention issue for support office computer programmers and skilled legislative drafters as well as staff directors and chiefs of staff — and an issue of equity with their Executive branch equivalents.

For non-senior staff, don’t feel left out: the House included in its Legislative Branch Appropriations Bill a 13% overall increase in funding, including funding to increase salaries for personal, committee, and leadership staff by 21%, which would return them to 2010 levels (adjusted for inflation). Thank Steny Hoyer; Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and the 110 Dems who signed her letter; every member of the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress; Reps. Ryan, Lofgren, and DeLauro; and a bunch of civil society groups who have been tirelessly pushing this issue. This isn’t a zero sum game, btw: it’s possible to pay all staff significantly more and to increase the top line. The big question is whether the Senate agrees to the House’s proposed funding levels for the first branch of government.

This is one piece of a larger puzzle to strengthen and diversify Congress: paid internships, an Office of Diversity and Inclusion, a central HR hub, proposals to unionize political staff and create pay floors and pay scales, and so on. You can find one of Demand Progress’s proposals to increase the pay staff cap here; and we would be remiss if we did not mention Rep. Graves’ amendment to the Leg Branch Appropriations bill, which was not ruled in order, and would have increased the staff pay cap.

What’s a pay order? Uhh, I don’t really want to talk about it right now, but the Speaker’s authority to do this in the House is set out in statute, although finding the actual orders can be challenging. As an aside, some members of Congress earn more than the base rate: according to CRS, the Speaker earns $223,500 and the President Pro Tempore and Leaders earn $193,000.

Caveats. I should add that some Legislative branch staff — according to CRS, anyway — already earn more than rank-and-file members of Congress, such as the Comptroller General, the Librarian of Congress, and so on. I can’t tell what they are actually paid, however, because there is a pay free for certain senior officials — political appointees? — which includes some members of the Legislative branch who are appointed by the president. (Why they are appointed by the president is another issue entirely.) In addition, this year’s Leg Branch Appropriations Bill sets the AOC and USCP Chief’s salaries at Executive Schedule II, leaving the potentially anomalous result that some Legislative branch agency chiefs will be subject to the freeze (and thus paid less) while others would not. It also could create anomalous pay levels for politicals versus non-politicals. You know, this would be a great question for CRS.

Continue reading “Special Forecast for August 13, 2021”

Forecast for August 9, 2021

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Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Subscribe here. A preview of coming distractions: if Congress takes a break, we may take one, too. Wouldn’t that be nice.

THE TOP LINE

Members of Congress can force policy change without moving a bill. Rep. Bush made that clear last week in a successful effort to extend the eviction moratorium. There were a lot of unusual circumstances, and we are highlighting her efforts only to make the point that moving the nature of the debate — which can’t be measured by counting up co-sponsored bills — can be just as meaningful as getting a bill enacted. In this case, she prompted Pres. Biden to act, which also highlights how much responsibility Congress has ceded to the Executive branch.

It’s critical to avoid the trap that a powerful Congress necessitates in-person Congress. In last week’s Slow Build newsletter, Nancy Scola connects Rep. Bush’s success with an argument around Congress operating in-person. We note (as Scola does) that the House was out. In our opinion, what helped Rep. Bush was that the Senate was in — and not much else was happening — which prompted reporters stuck on the Hill to tell other stories, i.e. Bush’s. In other words, it was the ability to get attention. In a fully remote House, Rep. Bush would have had legislative options available to raise the matter on the floor instead of having to sleep upright on the Capitol steps.

America unmasked too quickly — or failed to mask at all — that much is clear. The House will extend its emergency proxy voting stop-gap measures through the fall and potentially through the end of the year. 20 House Members declared “Congress should be considering a vaccine requirement for Members and staff of the U.S. Capitol complex or, at minimum, twice per week testing for those who are unable to verify positive vaccination status,” an issue which Speaker Pelosi dodged. We are unsure how a mandate could be enforced against Members, but it is a reasonable step; there’s an open question about whether the Senate would agree to extending a requirement to support agencies. Universal vaccination is the sine qua non of in-person deliberations — alongside mandatory mask wearing — while COVID infections increase, and may be insufficient should new highly-transmissible variants be vaccine resistant. Our own Taylor Swift, who has testified before Congress on its continuity, has some tough-love advise for the Senate.

House Admin’s hearing on renovating the Cannon House Office Building, which we detail below, prompts us to consider: What does a modern congressional office building look like? The changing nature of work demands accessible, safe facilities, ones that can accomodate our hybrid remote/IRL activities.

The debt ceiling still loomsUgh.

The Library of Congress will host a public forum on Congress.gov on September 2nd from 1 to 4pm ET. You can read what we wrote about the last one here — come with your recommendations on what you’d like to see them take on.

Continue reading “Forecast for August 9, 2021”

What Items Are Due to Congress: August 2021

Congress regularly requests reports on strengthening Congress but there’s no central place to keep track of what they’ve requested.

To help keep track of things, we built a public spreadsheet that maintains a catalog of projects, broken down by item due, entity responsible, and due date.

The catalog covers reforms and requests ordered by the House and Senate Legislative Branch Appropriations Subcommittees, the Committee on House Rules, and the Select Committee on the Modernization of Congress. At the moment, the catalog includes major resolutions and measures: H. Res. 8, the House Rules for the 117th Congress, Legislative Branch Appropriations FY 2021, and H.Res. 756 from the 116th Congress.

[googleapps domain=”docs” dir=”spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT2jdFwY7dH_JPOS8tIHIRmBDXN1qbv6Z_4weSi3co-xGkM4XwvMHo_3MzuM8s9O3LptsfQAsO3YaUJ/pubhtml” query=”widget=true&headers=false” /]

We continue to update this list each month for what’s due and what’s outstanding. Here are the February, March, and April, May, June, and July editions.

Continue reading “What Items Are Due to Congress: August 2021”

Forecast for August 2, 2021

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Welcome to the First Branch Forecast, your weekly look into the Legislative branch and government transparency. Subscribe here.

THE TOP LINE

Congress enacted the Security supplemental with a 98-0 vote in the Senate, a 416-11 vote in the House, and a signature from the President. Six House Dems voted no. (The amended bill text is here.)The $2.1 billion bill includes significant non-congressionally related funds, such as $1.2 billion to help Afghan nationals resettle and to provide aid to neighboring countries; $521 million to reimburse the national guard for its deployment to the U.S. Capitol; $300 million to harden the Capitol Complex; $70 million for the Capitol Police for overtime, bonuses, new equipment, and training; and $42 million for employees and contractors who otherwise would have been laid off during the pandemic.

Leg Branch Approps passed the House on Wednesday, which included a top line funding increase of 13.8% and a lot of good stuff in the report language. All the appropriations bills passed the House except Defense, Homeland Security, and CJS. CJS was set for a floor but was delayed because police unions objected to tying grants to taking steps to end chokeholds, end ‘no-knock’ warrants, eliminate racial profiling, and eliminate sexual contact between officers and people in their custody.” This appears to also have an election-related dimension.

Senate Appropriations start this week, with the chamber aiming to hold markups on Agriculture, Energy and Water, and MilCon.

The Access to Congressionally Mandated Reports Act passed the House and is now up for Senate consideration; the Congressional Budget Justification Transparency Act was brought up on the House floor but was delayed by Rep. Greene, who requested a roll call vote — part of an effort this past week to delay legislative proceedings. These bills embody significant wins for Congressional transparency. Democrats and Republicans praised the bipartisan work that went into the CBJTA prior to the objection; and had similar praise for ACMRA prior to its passage.

The House Modernization Committee favorably reported 20 recommendations — a literal score — that aim to strengthen staff benefits and diversity, provide more opportunities for interns and fellows, and increase Capitol Hill accessibility. More on this below.

Masks are back at the Capitol after the Office of the Attending Physician required House members and encouraged senators to wear masks on the floor and in the hallways. At the White House, staff will now be required to wear masks indoors regardless of vaccination status. Winter is coming.

Continue reading “Forecast for August 2, 2021”